Indian Economy and Governance



Every countries driving policy is always based on its economy but unfortunately the policies of our present government look absolutely unclear. It appears like they are basing their decisions haphazardly and everything seems to be in utter chaos. 

Heads of Governance don’t come forward to interact with the countrymen to explain the vision of the government. This is in fact their duty and their responsibility to provide understanding regarding policies related to Inflation, Unemployment, Law and Order, Farmer's agitation, Unemployment ,Effect of Covid 19, etc. Our PM came only in front of the country when he had to announce his disastrous decision regarding Demonetization, GST and to hold unlimited election rallies! 

I understand every government in their tenure use Central agencies but what the country is witnessing now is a matter of concern. Few days back ,ED raided a powerful Sena MLA because the defeat of Maharastra is hurting the present filling party of Central.

Three days back Central Bank has amended and recommended a policy to the Government to allow the Corporates to open and run Banks. This policy is being widely criticized but it appears like they will move ahead as the government looks like they are under pressure from their favorite Corporate Houses. Something to note is that that approx. 4500 small and big corporate houses heads have defaulted and run away from the country after taking loans from Bank and become NPA. After our Independence, between 1947 to 1956 approx. 525 banks become insolvent (during that time Banking was under Private regime and most of them were owned by Corporates) and Taxpayers lost their money due to which Late PM Smt. Indira Gandhi decided to move ahead with the nationalization of Banks to give assurance to the Nation about the safety of their money. The way LVB was recently handed over to DBS Singapore,  it's an example of present governance rigidness. LVB was running most of their branches on its owned property. Again DBS got LVB under the pressure of present governance favourite corporate houses who do lot of International investment and businesses through DBS.

Jaihind

Manoj Joshi

Addition of Rafale and our Governance

It’s indeed a great move to add Rafale in Indian Airforce. No doubt this will be a big morale boost for Indian Army. Especially under the current circumstances when our country is going through rocky relationships with our neighboring countries.

It’s important to note that about a decade or less, India was not facing any challenges from our neighbours except Pakistan. But in the last 6 years, our relationship with all our neighbors has severely declined. Countries like Nepal, Srilanka, Bangladesh, Mynamar and even Bhutan have started dictating terms and raising unwanted issues.

No doubt after becoming Prime Minister, Mr. Modi toured almost the entire world and more than once visited our neighboring countries. However, we all remain in dark about the purpose of these world tours except perhaps brand building? Any yield of his visits would have definitely helped the country but what we are witnessing is the exact opposite. This is the direct result of the present governance poor handling of External Affair Ministry added by non focussed Defense, Finance, Health and Internal Security ministries.

Unfortunately,  on India-Maynamar border, Assam Rifles soldiers were attacked. Just few days ago Indian soldiers were attacked by Nepal police at the Border. This is in conjunction to the ongoing China issues we are facing and our permanent tussle with Pakistan.

I believe our country can take advantage and make a strong move with the addition of Rafale. However, this is only possible with a strong and focussed governance otherwise our country will continuously suffer and even Rafale can't do anything.

Wakeup India Wakeup 

Jaihind 

Manoj joshi

Rapdily Growing Corona Effect in Uttar Pradesh and Governance

Unfortunately the numbers of Covid infected patients are increasing exponentially in Lucknow. As per the latest news, it appears that the OPDs of most of the big hospitals like KGMU,Lucknow  are overflowing with patients and now this has created a sense of panic among the doctors and medical staff who are finding it very difficult to handle the situation.

 

I wonder if this is the situation in the capital (Lucknow), then what must be happening in satellite towns/ villages of Uttar Pradesh. It is very disturbing to see how things are continuously worsening in this state, and it appears that this is largely because of the non-focussed and callous attitude of the state government here.

 

In the last 4 month, the Uttar Pradesh state government has not only been unsuccessful in taking adequate measure and precautions to curb the spread of Covid but has only been spending majority of its time and energy in areas that are not the need of the hour like gearing up for laying of Ram Mandir foundation stone on 5^th August and getting ready for 2022 State Assembly Election. 

 

The governance of the state of Uttar Pradesh is totally paralysed in all the fronts - healthcare, law & order, security, employment rate/ opportunity. It appears that every other news that we hear about murders, kidnappings, theft, (fake)encounters, etc is from UP. Sadly two days back four senior police officials from Kanpur got suspended due to their  involvement in a case of murder and extortion.

 

Due to the above circumstances in UP, the responsibility of the central government is also under question (specially the Home and Health Ministry). It is very unfortunate to see how the central government is turning a blind eye to the situation in UP which needs Presidential rule immediately rather than  the BJP government is more interested and involved in destabilizing the elected government of  Rajasthan since past 10 days with the help of ED, IT agencies . 

 

It would be much better and appreciated if under this difficult time, the central government would focus its emergency to curb the spread of virus and guide the UP government to do so rather than getting involved in nonissues. Let´s hope for Wisdom.

 

Jai hind 

Manoj joshi

Poor and Non Focussed Governance resulting in Increasing the Numbers of Corona Patients

Let me start by congratulating the Delhi Government – efforts of the Delhi govt (with the assistance of the Federal govt) have finally paid off, thereby decreasing the growth rate of Covid infection in the capital (from almost 4k per day to 1500 per day).

 

On the other hand, in some other states of our country like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Telangana etc, the Covid growth rate curve is becoming steeper with every passing day. I believe that this is largely because of the non-focussed and callous attitude of the state governments here. These local governments are more focussed on religious and political issues rather than looking at the big picture and taking measures to curb the spread of infection and putting in all their energy in improving the health service structure for safeguarding the citizens.

 

Unfortunately, the infection numbers are rapidly increasing in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Though the Bihar govt has imposed a 10-day lockdown finishing in a day or two to control the situation, the Uttar Pradesh govt has come up with only a complete weekend and certain districts limited police stations  lockdown policy and that in my opinion is not going to serve the purpose. What is more disturbing is that instead of devoting time and coming up with better policies to safeguard the citizens of Uttar Pradesh, the govt here is gearing itself for the construction of Ram Mandir from  5^th  August 2020 depending on the availability of our Prime minister for  laying the foundation by Silver stone, which itself an expensive affair under the present economic stress.

 

We have been continuously getting reports from different sources that the situation will worsen in the coming days and that the infection numbers will be majorly from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Despite all these alarms, the testing capacity in these states is very low and due to poor governance, non-aligned priorities and unorganized structure, nothing is being done to improve the situation.

 Jai hind

Manoj joshi 

All this makes me wonder that rather than interfering and wasting time in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh political matters and upcoming West Bengal , Bihar and Madhya Pradesh elections, why the federal government is not monitoring/interfering and guiding these state governments to control the situation. Is politics really more important than the lives and safety of millions of people?

Raising of unwanted/irrelevant issues to counter and divert the core issues like China, Corona and everyday price increase of Petroleum products

 

Since the last two days, we are witnessing our government raise unwanted and irrelevant issues just to divert public attention away from core economic issues. 

The opposition parties, specially Congress is continuously pressurizing the government on the ongoing China debacle by issuing statements and releasing satellite images.The premise behind this is to counter our PM and his government who has absolved China of all responsiblity in order to safeguard his government. Various individuals and organizations have come forth to counter the PM, with opposition party Congress leading the charge.

In a well-oiled functioning democracy, this is indeed the correct way to raise your voice against the government if there is any doubt regarding the safety of the public. In the last 6 years we have unfortunately moved away from a Democracy to a Monarchy. The country is  "forced" to accept whatever the ruling party conveys. This is not a right direction towards the progress of any country.

The rulling party recently countered the allegation of Congress on China by tweeting/presenting a document wherein in 2013 a particular trust, belonging to Congress accepted a donation of Rs 90 lacs from a Chinese group. I agree, this is in fact a great disclosure but it demands a question why the goverment was silent for 6 years and did not initiate a CBI or ED enquiry? Additionally, this document does not absolve our ruling party of their resposibility on their lack of action on LAC. 

In last 6 years, multiple times we have witnessed these actions, propaganda tools and divisive politice.This style of politics is in fact not new and and has been around since the last 100 years. After World War 1, the overall economic condition of Europe was not good. People were struggling, much like today. Countries were fighting among themselves and goverment adopted a strategy to establish themselves as "true nationalist" again to divert the attention of people from core issues. In 1920, The National Socialist German Workers party was formed. It was later commonly referred to as the "German Party." Initially their membership was only 60, with a vote bank of ~ 2%. However, after the great depression of 1929 there was change in tide. They raised issues of true nationalism, appealed for boycotting goods from countries etc. In 1933, the party's vote bank rose closing to 40% and party's nominee became Chancellor of Germany. The party membership was 8.5 million in 1945 when party was dissolved. History has all the records about this party, its ideology and governance.

I believe gradually now our country has started understanding these types of gimmicks of our government diverting core issues like COVID19, Inflation, Economic Recession, Hike in Petroleum Prices etc. I am hopefule that type of divisive politics will not last long.

Jai hind.

Manoj joshi

Chinese Invasion In Ladakh

It's very unfortunate that yesterday we lost 22 of our brave Army personnel’s, including 1 CO level officer by Chinese army in Ladakh area as per Army bulletin although unconfirmed news says in totality 43 Army Personnel.Let's pray for the departed souls.

The recent brewing tension with China on the LOC in the Laddakh area has been in the news for almost one month. Rumors / information about Chinese Army invading almost 35 kms inside our territory had been circulating for a while but unfortunately our government did not take this matter seriously. Each day we witnessed a lukewarm statement from our Defense Minister, that "Dialogues are on and China is pushing back“ but the lack of action resulted in huge casualties. It's really shameful.

Each passing day our relationship with our neighboring countries is deteriorating. And under the current failing economic situation along with Health crisis due to Covid 19 that our country is facing, this sudden worsening relationship with our neighboring countries is very alarming.

Many Analysts and Economists say that this situation has mainly occurred due to our weak foreign policy, shrewd diplomacy, arrogance and and divisive politics. We should also question the role of our media and their coverage. News of "Sabarmati front Swing” was given prime time coverage but they fail to bring core issues in front of the whole country. What is happening today is an accumulation of last 6 years of poor and weak governance.

Nationalism is required to save the country from this tough time. Hence, true Nationalists and Intellectuals should come forward and raise their voice. They should contribute in building India again. 

Jai hind.

Manoj joshi

Draft regarding change in Electricity Act 2020

Our Union Government is ready with a draft to change the existing Electricity Act. This new draft will essentially scrap any direct subsidiary and subsequently transfer the same to consumer accounts. Additionally, it proposes fixing of tarrif by a special created authority.

We are all aware that in most places distribution of electricity lies in the hands of big corporations - primarily giants like Ambani and Adani groups. We are getting more reports and evidence each passing day about corruption in different government direct transfer schemes whether it's a Gas, Manrega, Kisan Nidhi, etc. And this might be a continuation of our Government’s corruption laden unfortunate rule. 

Under the severe ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, where there is a lack of disposable income in the economy for a majority of the citizens and the performance of the Central Government in installing confidence has been almost deplorable, an increase in the Electricity bill for the common man will seriously be an additional burden.

Farmers who are not even getting a good MSP and are in fact struggling to survive, the additional cost of input will seriously harm them. Recently Government of India has increased the MSP but has not considered the price of increasing inputs, hence the effect is either zero or in fact negligible.

Since Electricity is on the concurrent list so this move is in fact a violation of the spirit of Cooperative Federalism. Hence, Public, other parties and the judiciary should come forward and stop the Central Government from implementing this Act which is not in the favor of the country and enhances corruption.

Jai Hind

Manoj joshi

Politics On Covid 19 Effects In Delhi



Thus the game of Ping Pong is over.........

When LG of Delhi altered the order of Delhi CM, immediately the long standing understanding between Central Govt. and State Govt. was over.

All of a sudden the entire AAP machinery including their CM, Deputy CM and various ministers become active. Suddenly critical information like potential infected numbers, by July would reach ~550,000, requirement of 80,000 more hospital beds, community spread was available to publicetc. It’s strange how within two days Mr AK and his team have closed this gap in information so soon.

I think as our CM he is answerable to all residents of Delhi what he and his team were doing since March 25th. Why were appropriate actions not taken to create the sufficient bed and health facilities. He is also unfortunately still silent on the much advertised “Mohalla Clinic.” The worst part of this story is that only two days back CM of Delhi has given the permission to open all the Malls, Restaurants, Borders, etc.

When our country was put under the lock down, the Honorable PM and HM initiated the same without any planning or roadmap. And one day, out of sudden all CM's were “asked” to make the decision regarding unlocking. The main reason regarding unlocking was given as “Economy.” However, it’s startling how in last 6 years our government paid no serious attention on this matter and our GDP growth has fallen down dramatically come down to 2.5%.

The present PM and HM are election savvy and their main interest is always that in one or other part of the   country some elections should take place and they should be busy in holding the rallies and throwing the "Jumlas", after empowering the state governments immediately HM is in election mode , although to control the epidemic his ministry is also responsible not only HM and  CM's.

Since central government has empowered the Delhi CM to take the decision regarding unlocking. Hence, keeping the well being of Delhilities in mind the CM of Delhi should immediately "Relock Delhi " as Lockdown 1 with strict Curfew ( movement of trains, domestic flights should also be suspended) with immediate effect to save Delhi and Delhilities.

Jai hind.

Manoj joshi 

Dominance of Private Hospitals due to Poor Governance effecting the common man



Delhi state government has filed a FIR under IPC section 188 against Sir Ganga Ram Hospital accusing the hospitals denying treatment despite capacity. Similar charges have been levied against other leading private hospitals. Government hospitals are not very far behind. Currently there is a tug of war going on between Delhi State Govt. and the Management team of hospital. The Union Health Minister has now come forward to safeguard the RML hospital.

Under the severe ongoing COVID healthcare crises that has griped the nation, it has been being predicted (refer Prof Mukherjee Bio Statistian of US University) by the end of July the current cases might reach 2.1 Million. This figure is alarming and also exposes our failing Health policy as well as governance at federal  and various state levels.

To safeguard Delhi from this upcoming crisis - instead of focussing on solutions, our government is unfortunately busy blaming each other. 

No doubt COVID has and continues to expose our federal as well as state government on various governance issues. We are eagely waiting to hear from our CM Delhi regarding how many beds are ready in his famous “Mohalla Clinic,” how many people have been admitted so far, how many have gone home after treatment, number of casualties, etc. Delhi is under severe threat of COVID 19. I don't understand why the CM is so keen in opening the entire state including commercial and religious places etc. 

Under the above circumstances both Federal as and state government should come out immediately with clearly laid out policy to minimize the effect of Covid 19 and save Delhi and its residents wherein numbers are increasing day by day. They should seriously think about re-locking the entire state like Lockdown 1,  atleast until  15th July.

Jai hind.

Manoj joshi

Recent Moody's Report And It's Impact On Our Future Economy



Today I would like to focus attention towards the recent report of Moody's, a prominent credit rating agency, which has given a negative sentiment to our economy in the coming times. 

To counter the report, our Commerce minister has issued a long statement to reassure the public that the government is in fact touch with over 600 investors. I respect Mr Goyal (Commerce minister) because he is a qualified professional (Chartered Accountant) but I feel he was not able to give a strong message to the country on which one can rely very much. About 15 days back another Cabinet Minister Mr Gadkari has mentioned that we are in touch with 300 Investors, now the question is on whome country should rely.

The present government is not able to give a strong message that "All is Well " on the COVID front. They messed up enforcing /lifting the lockdown and now the entire responsibility has been passed to the state governments. Every one knows that the job of the federal government is to support the province not the other way round. Every province has their own unique problems which has resulted in infected numbers touching 9k / per day; death toll is also increasing at a fast rate. 

Two days back there was an article in The Hindu, which says that after failing on all fronts BJP and it's top aides are trying to bring back agenda like construction of  Ram Mandir, CAA etc to divert core issues. Additionally, since major elections are coming up even the HM is holding a virtual rally in Bihar on 9th June which to a certain extent proves the credibility of the of the The Hindu article. 

Under the situation where the core issues are ignored and relationship with the neighboring countries are alarming, it's difficult that big and good investors will come forward which is not in our best interest and good for the country's future economy.

Jaihind

Manoj joshi

Our Foreign Policy and Neighborhood Relationship

Since the last 6 years our PM, Foreign minister and their team having been on regular world tours and subsequently spent millions of tax payers money. Results of these trips are highly alarming too:

1. Nepal opens border dispute and called Carona as “Indian Virus”

2. SriLanka is firmly with China, Pak is with US.

3. Bangladesh is upset due to CAA

4. Maldives cancelled work visa for all Indian Citizens.

5. China is continuously invading parts of India - Arunachal, Sikkim and Laddakh. Recently Chinese helicopters were noticed inside Indian territory in Laddakh region.

6. Bhutan has also levied the same minimum foreign exchange requirement clause for Indian tourists. 

Since Independence, except Pakistan and China, other countries always had very cordial relationship with India. But the recent shift in their attitude is concerning issue because as a country we will be more unsafe.

It proves that our present governance has never focussed on building strong diplomatic relationship. They are rather busy promoting divisive issues like Mandir, Demonetization, Implementation of GST, etc. I feel this is primarily due to our unawareness of bilateral issues, unfocussed foreign policy, non-representation in United Nation and a very weak Foreign Minister. 

Due to Corona Virus, our economic condition is a serious issue which has been on a downturn since last 4 years. The current issues with our neighboring countries is adding to our concerns. The present situation looks very grim, which is not good for the Nation as well as our country men.

Under the arrogant attitude governance we have just one option. We need to pray that our current governance would be enlightened and our Nation would be saved.

Jai hind 

Manoj joshi 

Shifting of US companies from China , India continuously missing the opportunity

In my previous 28th April blog, I mentioned that it’s a possibility that global companies would start shifting their production base from China to other Asian countries.

Just two days back 27 US companies announced that they are shifting their production to Indonesia. This in my opinion is just the starting. This decision indicates that India missed a major opportunity and is no longer a preferred manufacturing base / hub. This can unfortunately be attributed to a lack of a clear foreign policy and failure of our current governance. It’s appalling that despite this clear failure our PM promotes his slogan "Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas" which merely is a theoretical agenda at this point.

Despite of all the fan fare during the recent visit of Mr. Trump we failed to impress any US companies. This is primarily due to our poor diplomatic management and foreign policy backed by a non focussed administrative and financial ministries.

Once again, I reiterate that the future works economy will be driven from Asia and at the center will be South East Asia. 

Unfortunately, under this current  Indian government is far from becoming a global success until and unless their  present policy  of Non tolerance /dictorial attitude will not get changed and subsequently a conducive brotherhood atmosphere within the country will  be created.

Jai Hind 

Manoj joshi 

How TCS decision is a big safeguard for our economy

TCS has decided that a majority of their workforce, ~3.5 lakhs (75%) employees in India will work from home. This is well above the industry average of 20% today. The new business model - "25/25" requires much less office space. "We don't believe that we need more than 25% of our workforce at our facilities in order to be 100% productive," - TCS's chief operating officer NG Subramaniam.

This is brave and great move by TCS to help contribute towards the economy and save the country in coming years from a potential economic recession. This decision allows employees to work from their home town / village. I see two-fold benefit from this decision, on one hand they save income towards rent and additional living expenses and simultaneously significantly increases their purchasing power. 

I believe these tough and bold decisions should also follow suit by software companies and financial firms. Similarly, Govt. offices should also plan for work from home. Currently only 33% below than under secretary level employees are attending the offices on rotation basis. Under this system government is claiming functioning is not being effected then why not later?

This system can be completed under Bhagidari policy "Will to Do." This will avoid traffic jams, save commute time and natural resources. In the end, our country will definitely be much more clean and green .

Jai hind 

Manoj joshi

 

Corona Virus and the Future Economy of the World

Given the ongoing Corona virus and it’s tremendous global economic impact, their is a lot of debate if the USA can retain it's position worldwide or whether a new superpower will emerge.

I believe the upcoming US elections are crucial. If an experienced politician and good administrator will replace Donald Trump, USA may retain its position although the next two years might be difficult even for the next President.

I strongly believe China has lost its stronghold due to Corona Virus. They have lost their credibility especially in the Western countries who are the big importers of Chinese goods. Their biggest strength is manufacturing and construction which will be impacted and will have trickle down effect on the Chinese economy. 

Recent data shows that 59 of the biggest manufacturing companies between April 2018 to August 2019 have shifted their base from China to Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, India, Philippines etc. Studies show that one major reason behind this ”dictorial system /attitude." In the past, USSR lost the battle to USA due to its dictatorship however we are all aware that USSR was disintegrated into many small countries due to governance and policy issues. 

Since 1990, we have been hoping and believing that by 2020 that India will become a superpower. We have the people, strength, energy - the right mix of power and candor to emerge as a strong nation. 

We were in fact moving in the right direction as well but unfortunately we lost sight in all but the last 6-7 years due to regressive religious politics, bad economic policies (demonetization, wrongly implemented GST, increase in unemployment), lack of execution of policies, etc.

In last few years Govt. of India has extended the line of credit to Mauritius, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Cambodia and many more countries. However, only 3 or 4 big corporations who are presumably close to the current government were allocated projects against these lines of credit. This has resulted in wealth further being accumulated only within these 3-4 corporate families. This has further widened the economic gap in our country. 

In order to become a great nation and economically strong a transparent and effective government is essential. I would again like to reiterate that I believe that the future world economy will be driven from Asia and countries like South Korea, Japan, Singapore will play a major role. 

Jai hind.

Manoj joshi 

Corona it's handling and future World economy

I believe the most impressive countries in the world to handle the current COVID situation are South Korea and followed by Singapore. I personally salute the head of the government, his team and the countrymen the way they are proactively fighting against this virus.

The primary rules they followed were social distancing and mass scale testing. Advanced countries like the USA and Italy were unable to control the virus the way these two countries did. Initially, the numbers were rising fast in these two countries as well but good governance and policies helped them to achieve success in controlling the spread of the virus. As of today, per WHO figures only 10,500 people have been effected and 242 Deaths in South Korea.

Both these countries play a major role in the field of Technology and Finance in Asia but it appears they are going to play an even major role in the world economy because the major countries are going to struggle with the economy in coming times including the US, UK, Europe and China 

One can see in the near future the emergence   of South Korea. Due to this in coming years, I strongly believe Asia is going to drive the world economy.

A big lesson for developing countries can learn from these two countries and still correct their internal measures to handle the effects of Corona in coming months / years. 

Jai hind

Manoj joshi

Corona and it's after effects

 In continuation to my previous blog, once again wanted to highlight the long term effects on our economy.

According to the World Bank, the Indian GDP rate is estimated to be between 1.5% - 2.5% but it appears to be in a continuous downward trajectory,

 We are seeing high exodus from large metro cities. Whenever the economy opens, I’m afraid a large percentage of labors will not return immediately, atleast for a year. This will directly effect the per capita consumption and subsequently manufacturing.

 Additionally, unemployment rate in India continues to climb. Multiple sources report it has reached unprecedented numbers, almost 8%. With limited or no employment opportunities in smaller cities and unfavorable government policies, I am afraid disposable cash will not flow down from the poor to poorest. This will in return effect the law and order condition in our country. We could expect crime to increase due to unemployment and subsequent shortage of cash.

I can understand Health ministry is over burdened because of COVID concerns but we need our government departments / ministries to work together to develop a long term plan for our country. Home ministry has suggested some relaxations like home delivery, supply chain (truck), Highways Dabba etc. but it appears that they failed in proper planning and execution once again. Recent cases of positive corona virus case of pizza delivery boy in Delhi or a Railway officer issuing a letter regarding movement of training shows the lack of governance and planning.

We need very good economists and managers to handle the upcoming financial issues and save our country from a potential economic recession. We need to focus on effective distribution of money, provide cheap loans to our entrepreneurs, help our manufacturing and industries etc.

We are all looking forward to hearing from the Head of the Governance, a concrete road map or a white paper on how economy recession will be handled and how our country will be saved. This cannot simply happen with our present policy - “Every day Cook and Eat "

Jai Hind

Manoj joshi 

Corona and it's after effect on our economy

After a gap of almost two months I'm back with my thoughts....

The entire world is witnessing a very tough time , more than 1.5 million people have been tested positive for the novel Coronavirus and around 90k people have died . Our country is also  facing this threat and is now entering into the 3rd phase. Though many sources reveals that in India the virus has not yet affected in a large way i.e, community spread, but nothing is confirmed yet because of the lack of testing being conducted in our country. Many researches that have been conducted over the past few months indicate that the novel Coronavirus is more predominate in colder countries or regions, and personally I believe this makes sense because if we compare the cases in colder countries with the hotter ones, the number of cases in former is way more - even in the United States the number of confirmed Coronavirus cases is much more in the colder East coast in comparison to other parts.

Hopefully we will be able to fight Corona and the outbreak will come to an end in the next two to three months time but the real challenge will come afterwards i.e, dealing with the worldwide economic recession and our country is not going to be an exception to this. Before the outbreak, our financial budget was already in big deficit, our official GDP was 4.5 % (although multiple unconfirmed sources say 2.5%), due to which the consumption per capita was highly on the negative side, owing to which the unemployment percentage was very high, and now this corona effect is going to make things worse.

 

Speaking about one of the major issues that I foresee - Majority of the rural population had returned to their native places/ villages, and per my understanding/ analysis, I don´t think atleast 60% will return back to bigger cities like Delhi, Mumbai, etc for atleast an year, this will directly effect our per capita consumption of most of the items as the income of these workers will decrease, decreasing their spending capacity and therefore the demand of many items. Furthermore this exodus will affect the Urban areas as well since livelihood a lot of the people in Urban areas depend on rental income and assuming that majority of the rural population will not return from their native places/ villages, the rental income will go down.

Our country is facing major apprehension as to how the present government (since last 6 years) is going to deal with this - since a long time now, the government has not shown any positive indication or impression that they are good on financial aspect. All of the present government´s decisions like Demonitization, GST, etc have back fired, and I personally don't foresee the equation changing.

Our country is and will be in a great economic trouble in the coming years and I strongly believe that the present government should take the help of the Economists and other related people who have delivered in the past and helped the country to get in a better shape. At the end, I just want to say that if we manage well (and it's not like that we are not capable to do it - We should not forget that unlike the western countries, majority of the population of our country doesn't believe in plastic money and even the poorest of the poor in India buys and keep gold ) we should be able to get over this bad phase slowly and gradually.

Jai hind.

Hate Speeches , Economy

30th January 1948 is one of the most mournful dates for our country. On this sorrowful day, a Fakir, who got us independence from the British rule, was brutally shot dead. History has once again repeated itself, after 22 years on 30th Jan 2020, a hard-core activist of the same ideology that killed the father of our nation opened fire on students protesting against the citizenship law near Jamia Millia University in Delhi.

This is not the first time when students have been targeted for protesting or raising their voice - 46 years ago (in 1974) a similar incident had happened, when in Patna, police had opened fire on students who were protesting against the federal government.

 It looks like instead of learning from the past and moving forward, the same old mistakes are being repeated in our country. Just like in 1974, there is unrest all over the country, people are protesting, there is so much of chaos and confusion, inflation and unemployment rate are at it´s all time high and it appears that the country is under a dictatorship regime. Infact, as per the recent numbers issued by one of the biggest organization of the world, the current unemployment rate in India has reached an all time high of last 45 years , inflation is at its peak and therefore the economy is in a very bad shape , you cannot forcee any improvement in near future after going through the yesterday Budget.

10 years back the entire world was talking about the fact that if India continues to grow the way it was growing then, nobody could stop India from being the next superpower, but in the last 6 years instead of making constructive and positive changes to attain this goal, the government has been busy forcing a hard-core ideology on the country. Also, it´s extremely shameful to see how to support this ideology, the ministers, members of parliament as well as party members give unacceptable statements; and worst of all how instead of putting an end to such actions and statement, the top person of our country endorses the same.

India is a young country and instead of providing a constructive road map for development to the next generation, it looks like the federal government is only interested in winning elections by hook or crook so that by remaining in the system, they could exploit the same and force their ideologies. This is also quite evident in the way preparation for Delhi election are progressing these days. Sadly, I am afraid but I believe that the worst is yet to come in next two elections. One can only pray to save one´s nation and countrymen.

Bharat Mata ki jai.

Jai Hind.

Unemployment , Delhi Election

When Bapu, JP and Anna took the route of Satyagrah against governance, initially they all faced resistance but ultimately patience helped them reached their goal. We are all witnessing a similar movement today too. The present government is coming out with any false allegation to curb the ongoing satyagrah in Shaheen Bagh, Lucknow, Mumbai, Patna etc. 

But we should not forget that the spirit of the biggest of democracy in the world has never been able to be crushed. 

As the Delhi assembly election is picking up pace, it is interesting to notice the contrast in the various candidates. Out of the three main contenders only AAP is asking vote on its last 5 years development work and subsequently on next 5 year given road map. It seems like BJP has already accepted defeat as the party is back to its regressive policies of divide and rule. It’s trying to fight the elections by polarizing the Hindu’s. It’s top leaders (including HM, DM, Party President, Member of Parliament) are continuously raising  issues like Shaheen Bagh etc. to swing community votes and divert the core issues like Recession, Inflation, Unemployment etc.

Oyo, a leading budget hotel chain, recently laid off more than 1800 employees in India. This is just one of the many other companies that are doing massive layoffs in our country. I wonder what our present government and leaders are taking steps for our youth for employment and our economy? 

BJP doesn’t look like a party with a roadmap for our country. And the recent loses in the last 5 states shows people’s mandate as well. Delhi elections is a no-win and upcoming two elections will tough as well. Ultimately, you can go only so far with manipulating people and no economic development. I believe this party, unfortunately got caught in it’s own vicious circle

Jai hind.

On Going Delhi Elections

Delhi elections are another proof that BJP is almost at the brim of “wisdom bankruptcy.” This party doesn't have any agenda or economic roadmap to present to our country. This further gets proven during every election when they rely on either Pakistan or Imran khan to retain power.

The way BJP leaders, including their President are reacting and showing frustration during election rallies, it appears that the intelligence reports are not in favor of BJP. Additionally, the way Home Minister has given a new jumla "if we come to power we will invest 1 lac crore.” This is the same type of jumla our PM had given during the last Bihar assembly election and we all know what was the unfortunate  result. Our HM lives in Lutyen since the last 6 years, why has he not done anything for Delhi since 2014, who had stopped him? 

In my earlier post, I mentioned how the undercurrent is in favour of AAP. I believe that will remain - certainly Hindu, Muslim, Pakistan and Imran khan are not going to pay any dividend to BJP

Delhi elections

We always heard that our country is the largest democracy in the world but yesterday the news of an International Agency downgrading our rating by 10 points on democratic front was truly disturbing and shameful. This is the first time this has happened in the last 70 years! Some of the reasons provided for this downgrade were the horizontal approach of Federal government and it's divisive policies. 

On 8th Feb, Delhi voters are going to vote for it’s leader. After a long time, I believe it's happening that the ruling party (Aam Aadmi party) is asking for a fresh mandate on the basis of their work and public service in last 5 years rather than regressive policies and agendas. 

No surprises that BJP, which is struggling to grab power in New Delhi since the last 22 years is propagating issues of Hindutva, CAA and religion because the party is short to name any development work for the society. This is despite the fact that BJP is the ruling MCD for the last 15 years. Congress is banking on the good work done by Late Smt. Shiela Dixit. The momentum is in favour of AAP and it appears like Delhilities are ready to give another 5 years to AK & it's team.

Delhi is a cosmopolitan city and voters are educated and intelligent. I am confident they will come out in huge numbers to exercise their voting power and uphold our democracy. This will be a testament that our country is united against the ideology that is working with the sole agenda to divide our society through their Horizontal policy. 

Jai hind.

Economic crisis and Unemployment

Each passing day it appears that our current government is neither focused nor willing to take any rational steps to bring back our sliding economy .

Our Finance Minister whose key responsibility is to work on our fiscal policy was busy addressing the media on CAA and NRC rather briefing the press about her plans to bring back our economy and control the inflation. It is ironical that our government is unconcerned with the financial issues when international organizations like - World Bank, Moody, IMF are all issuing alarming reports regarding India's financial health and have also removed us from the category of developing countries.

 

Additionally, our exports have going down heavily as well. Instead of coming out with some rational policy to boost up exports our leaders are suggesting to bring down the number of purchases from duty free shops while returning to India from Overseas. This would significantly impact the total turnover / profits of these shops and subsequently effect the reduction in man power leading to more unemployment

Jai hind 

In support of Shahin bagh

Mahatma Gandhi’s civil resistance and “satyagrah” movement guided India towards Independence in 1947. Once again, our Nation has united and risen together for the sake of truth. 

Shahinbagh Satyagrah is an example of the widespread resentment towards our present government. I am hopeful it will enlighten more individuals against the divisive policies and violation of fundamental rights guaranteed by the constitution. Also, in a country where we worship goddesses, the comments made by the Spokesperson and IT Cell of our ruling “majority” party against the ladies protesting at Shahin Bagh is truly deplorable. 

I also want to draw your attention towards the treatment of foreign investor like Amazon in our country. At a time when our country is on economic doldrums - our ministers are busy criticizing Jeff Bezos reasons well known.Please note, Amazon currently employees more than x people and plans on further investment in the come years. My educated guess is that this shrewd criticism stems from Washington Posts’s (owned by Amazon) critique against the present government. 

Statement of CDS on Kashmiri youths are highly objectionable it looks CDS is making such type of statements to please his bosses who like such type of matters to be there to divert the attention of the people from core issues.

The present conditions in our country are alarming on all fronts - Economic Growth, Inflation, Law and Order, Student Unrest, amongst others. However, these ongoing protests gives me hope that our country is united and we will be able to protect our constitution and not let it be destroyed.

Jai hind

Nation wide Protests

.“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win” ~ Mahatma Gandhi 

I strongly and unequivocally believe that the fate of any country is in the hands of “Aam Aadmi” coming together and taking a stand. Yesterday (8/1/2020) was observed as Bharat Bandh day in India. It was called by various trade unions of sectors such as Banks, Insurance,Manufacturing, Railways etc. 

Every day in our country is yet another protest on a nation wide level. Although it’s good to see the country come together but with no doubt it reminds us of the pre-emergency days in which ironically even our present Prime minister participated actively as a student leader. 

Present governance as well as Delhi police are not yet able to identify the masked goons who raided JNU. Yesterday there was a protest in Delhi university and more surprisingly in St Stephen college this is the first time ever in the history of this institution that students protested like this.

By observing closely, any one can decipher that this corporate backed present govt doesn’t have any clue how to address the present crisis and they are trying their best to divert the core issues. The cancellation of our PM’s Asaam visit twice in a month (which is his own party ruled state) shows their desperation 

We the people of India still hope that the present government will start addressing the problems vertically (rich, upper middle class, middle class, poor, bpl) rather than  horizontally (Hindu / Muslim) so our nation can be back on track.

Jai Hind

Student unrest and Present Governance

The way universities are getting attacked  and education of those institutions are getting disturbed its really not an encouraging sign for the country, particularly only those universities are getting attacked where in a student wing of governing party is not getting entry inspite of their best efforts , the worst part is that these universities are of  international repute and highly acclaimed.

What ever is happening not good , one can understand power of youth is always a challenging factor for  the governance when its fail to deliver on all the front ie solving the problem of  Unemployment, economic recession, controlling  inflation , law and order. I can say running a particular one state with censorship is easy but running  the entire country with the same thinking is impossible .

With the past history i can strongly say " more you  try to crush student protest it will be much stronger" 

In all part of country protests are going on including all section of countrymen.

Now Elections in Delhi are announced and poll survey is not et al favourable to Bjp , prey that the elections will be peaceful without much problems to the Delhi residents.

Jai Hind.

Manoj joshi

Present economical situation of India

It's seriously disgusting that due to 39% bhakts remaining 61% country men are suffering in all the corners , economy is going down , inflation rising  is on unstoppable  stage ,  from poorest to poor till upper middle class society is struggling for the survival , former economic advisors of present governance are cautioning the government that the present economic situation will soon be an   economic disaster , instead of solving all this the present governance is bringing/ raising  one or other controversial issues to divert the focus of the countrymen from core issues , touching the RBI reserves is a  proof of the economic problems . I don't forcee any one Is there in the present government who can bail out the country from ongoing economic problems .

Since present governance is more inclined towards corporates and that too with few corporate families that effects no circulation of money , until and unless money doesn't revolve no solution. This is the sixth year of present governance and the way we are moving ahead country future looks in negative under the present governance.

The way student unrest is raising it's voice in different parts of India , it's the only new hope towards the solution , our history tells us whenever students come forward governance changes and country start prospering , it happens all over world , will happen in India too.... Jai hind.

Manoj Joshi