Corona and it's after effect on our economy

After a gap of almost two months I'm back with my thoughts....

The entire world is witnessing a very tough time , more than 1.5 million people have been tested positive for the novel Coronavirus and around 90k people have died . Our country is also  facing this threat and is now entering into the 3rd phase. Though many sources reveals that in India the virus has not yet affected in a large way i.e, community spread, but nothing is confirmed yet because of the lack of testing being conducted in our country. Many researches that have been conducted over the past few months indicate that the novel Coronavirus is more predominate in colder countries or regions, and personally I believe this makes sense because if we compare the cases in colder countries with the hotter ones, the number of cases in former is way more - even in the United States the number of confirmed Coronavirus cases is much more in the colder East coast in comparison to other parts.

Hopefully we will be able to fight Corona and the outbreak will come to an end in the next two to three months time but the real challenge will come afterwards i.e, dealing with the worldwide economic recession and our country is not going to be an exception to this. Before the outbreak, our financial budget was already in big deficit, our official GDP was 4.5 % (although multiple unconfirmed sources say 2.5%), due to which the consumption per capita was highly on the negative side, owing to which the unemployment percentage was very high, and now this corona effect is going to make things worse.

 

Speaking about one of the major issues that I foresee - Majority of the rural population had returned to their native places/ villages, and per my understanding/ analysis, I don´t think atleast 60% will return back to bigger cities like Delhi, Mumbai, etc for atleast an year, this will directly effect our per capita consumption of most of the items as the income of these workers will decrease, decreasing their spending capacity and therefore the demand of many items. Furthermore this exodus will affect the Urban areas as well since livelihood a lot of the people in Urban areas depend on rental income and assuming that majority of the rural population will not return from their native places/ villages, the rental income will go down.

Our country is facing major apprehension as to how the present government (since last 6 years) is going to deal with this - since a long time now, the government has not shown any positive indication or impression that they are good on financial aspect. All of the present government´s decisions like Demonitization, GST, etc have back fired, and I personally don't foresee the equation changing.

Our country is and will be in a great economic trouble in the coming years and I strongly believe that the present government should take the help of the Economists and other related people who have delivered in the past and helped the country to get in a better shape. At the end, I just want to say that if we manage well (and it's not like that we are not capable to do it - We should not forget that unlike the western countries, majority of the population of our country doesn't believe in plastic money and even the poorest of the poor in India buys and keep gold ) we should be able to get over this bad phase slowly and gradually.

Jai hind.