How TCS decision is a big safeguard for our economy

TCS has decided that a majority of their workforce, ~3.5 lakhs (75%) employees in India will work from home. This is well above the industry average of 20% today. The new business model - "25/25" requires much less office space. "We don't believe that we need more than 25% of our workforce at our facilities in order to be 100% productive," - TCS's chief operating officer NG Subramaniam.

This is brave and great move by TCS to help contribute towards the economy and save the country in coming years from a potential economic recession. This decision allows employees to work from their home town / village. I see two-fold benefit from this decision, on one hand they save income towards rent and additional living expenses and simultaneously significantly increases their purchasing power. 

I believe these tough and bold decisions should also follow suit by software companies and financial firms. Similarly, Govt. offices should also plan for work from home. Currently only 33% below than under secretary level employees are attending the offices on rotation basis. Under this system government is claiming functioning is not being effected then why not later?

This system can be completed under Bhagidari policy "Will to Do." This will avoid traffic jams, save commute time and natural resources. In the end, our country will definitely be much more clean and green .

Jai hind 

Manoj joshi

 

Corona Virus and the Future Economy of the World

Given the ongoing Corona virus and it’s tremendous global economic impact, their is a lot of debate if the USA can retain it's position worldwide or whether a new superpower will emerge.

I believe the upcoming US elections are crucial. If an experienced politician and good administrator will replace Donald Trump, USA may retain its position although the next two years might be difficult even for the next President.

I strongly believe China has lost its stronghold due to Corona Virus. They have lost their credibility especially in the Western countries who are the big importers of Chinese goods. Their biggest strength is manufacturing and construction which will be impacted and will have trickle down effect on the Chinese economy. 

Recent data shows that 59 of the biggest manufacturing companies between April 2018 to August 2019 have shifted their base from China to Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, India, Philippines etc. Studies show that one major reason behind this ”dictorial system /attitude." In the past, USSR lost the battle to USA due to its dictatorship however we are all aware that USSR was disintegrated into many small countries due to governance and policy issues. 

Since 1990, we have been hoping and believing that by 2020 that India will become a superpower. We have the people, strength, energy - the right mix of power and candor to emerge as a strong nation. 

We were in fact moving in the right direction as well but unfortunately we lost sight in all but the last 6-7 years due to regressive religious politics, bad economic policies (demonetization, wrongly implemented GST, increase in unemployment), lack of execution of policies, etc.

In last few years Govt. of India has extended the line of credit to Mauritius, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Cambodia and many more countries. However, only 3 or 4 big corporations who are presumably close to the current government were allocated projects against these lines of credit. This has resulted in wealth further being accumulated only within these 3-4 corporate families. This has further widened the economic gap in our country. 

In order to become a great nation and economically strong a transparent and effective government is essential. I would again like to reiterate that I believe that the future world economy will be driven from Asia and countries like South Korea, Japan, Singapore will play a major role. 

Jai hind.

Manoj joshi 

Corona it's handling and future World economy

I believe the most impressive countries in the world to handle the current COVID situation are South Korea and followed by Singapore. I personally salute the head of the government, his team and the countrymen the way they are proactively fighting against this virus.

The primary rules they followed were social distancing and mass scale testing. Advanced countries like the USA and Italy were unable to control the virus the way these two countries did. Initially, the numbers were rising fast in these two countries as well but good governance and policies helped them to achieve success in controlling the spread of the virus. As of today, per WHO figures only 10,500 people have been effected and 242 Deaths in South Korea.

Both these countries play a major role in the field of Technology and Finance in Asia but it appears they are going to play an even major role in the world economy because the major countries are going to struggle with the economy in coming times including the US, UK, Europe and China 

One can see in the near future the emergence   of South Korea. Due to this in coming years, I strongly believe Asia is going to drive the world economy.

A big lesson for developing countries can learn from these two countries and still correct their internal measures to handle the effects of Corona in coming months / years. 

Jai hind

Manoj joshi

Corona and it's after effects

 In continuation to my previous blog, once again wanted to highlight the long term effects on our economy.

According to the World Bank, the Indian GDP rate is estimated to be between 1.5% - 2.5% but it appears to be in a continuous downward trajectory,

 We are seeing high exodus from large metro cities. Whenever the economy opens, I’m afraid a large percentage of labors will not return immediately, atleast for a year. This will directly effect the per capita consumption and subsequently manufacturing.

 Additionally, unemployment rate in India continues to climb. Multiple sources report it has reached unprecedented numbers, almost 8%. With limited or no employment opportunities in smaller cities and unfavorable government policies, I am afraid disposable cash will not flow down from the poor to poorest. This will in return effect the law and order condition in our country. We could expect crime to increase due to unemployment and subsequent shortage of cash.

I can understand Health ministry is over burdened because of COVID concerns but we need our government departments / ministries to work together to develop a long term plan for our country. Home ministry has suggested some relaxations like home delivery, supply chain (truck), Highways Dabba etc. but it appears that they failed in proper planning and execution once again. Recent cases of positive corona virus case of pizza delivery boy in Delhi or a Railway officer issuing a letter regarding movement of training shows the lack of governance and planning.

We need very good economists and managers to handle the upcoming financial issues and save our country from a potential economic recession. We need to focus on effective distribution of money, provide cheap loans to our entrepreneurs, help our manufacturing and industries etc.

We are all looking forward to hearing from the Head of the Governance, a concrete road map or a white paper on how economy recession will be handled and how our country will be saved. This cannot simply happen with our present policy - “Every day Cook and Eat "

Jai Hind

Manoj joshi 

Corona and it's after effect on our economy

After a gap of almost two months I'm back with my thoughts....

The entire world is witnessing a very tough time , more than 1.5 million people have been tested positive for the novel Coronavirus and around 90k people have died . Our country is also  facing this threat and is now entering into the 3rd phase. Though many sources reveals that in India the virus has not yet affected in a large way i.e, community spread, but nothing is confirmed yet because of the lack of testing being conducted in our country. Many researches that have been conducted over the past few months indicate that the novel Coronavirus is more predominate in colder countries or regions, and personally I believe this makes sense because if we compare the cases in colder countries with the hotter ones, the number of cases in former is way more - even in the United States the number of confirmed Coronavirus cases is much more in the colder East coast in comparison to other parts.

Hopefully we will be able to fight Corona and the outbreak will come to an end in the next two to three months time but the real challenge will come afterwards i.e, dealing with the worldwide economic recession and our country is not going to be an exception to this. Before the outbreak, our financial budget was already in big deficit, our official GDP was 4.5 % (although multiple unconfirmed sources say 2.5%), due to which the consumption per capita was highly on the negative side, owing to which the unemployment percentage was very high, and now this corona effect is going to make things worse.

 

Speaking about one of the major issues that I foresee - Majority of the rural population had returned to their native places/ villages, and per my understanding/ analysis, I don´t think atleast 60% will return back to bigger cities like Delhi, Mumbai, etc for atleast an year, this will directly effect our per capita consumption of most of the items as the income of these workers will decrease, decreasing their spending capacity and therefore the demand of many items. Furthermore this exodus will affect the Urban areas as well since livelihood a lot of the people in Urban areas depend on rental income and assuming that majority of the rural population will not return from their native places/ villages, the rental income will go down.

Our country is facing major apprehension as to how the present government (since last 6 years) is going to deal with this - since a long time now, the government has not shown any positive indication or impression that they are good on financial aspect. All of the present government´s decisions like Demonitization, GST, etc have back fired, and I personally don't foresee the equation changing.

Our country is and will be in a great economic trouble in the coming years and I strongly believe that the present government should take the help of the Economists and other related people who have delivered in the past and helped the country to get in a better shape. At the end, I just want to say that if we manage well (and it's not like that we are not capable to do it - We should not forget that unlike the western countries, majority of the population of our country doesn't believe in plastic money and even the poorest of the poor in India buys and keep gold ) we should be able to get over this bad phase slowly and gradually.

Jai hind.